Scientists and newspaper headlines recently announced the World was on course for a catastrophic 6°C rise in temperature. This 6°C rise, which is a predicted average World temperature increase over the next century, with more extreme changes expected for the north and south poles, is an irreversible planet-wide disaster. Many parts of the Earth will become unsuitable for human or animal existence.
The findings were recently presented in a Nature Geoscience article, from The School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia and backed by a slew of prominent researchers. The consequences of global temperatures rising is also the subject of an amazing book by Mark Lynas - Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet.
The simple fact of the matter is that since 2000, carbon dioxide has risen by 3% per year, mostly due to the enormous growth in the Chinese economy, driven by worldwide insatiable consumption and population growth. In contrast, carbon dioxide growth was 1% per year between 1990-2000.
Most knowledgeable scientists believe 2°C is the limit of increase. Scientists, along with much of the citizen population, see Copenhagen as the last chance to stabilize emissions and ‘hopefully’ avoid exceeding a 2°C rise. As the temperature increases, carbon sinks, oceans, forests and soils, can no longer absorb so much carbon, leaving more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to trap the sun’s heat and raise global atmospheric, ocean and land temperatures. This will lead to rampant arctic ice, glacier and Greenland ice sheet melting, and further heat absorption by the ocean and land exposed underneath the rapidly disappearing, and highly reflective snow and ice.
The fear is that we have already reached the ‘tipping point’. Whereas, normally 40% of carbon dioxide remained in the atmosphere over a year, now there is up to 45% remaining - showing that the sinks are failing or other mechanisms are actually releasing carbon dioxide.
So, as you stick your head in the sand and think that a little bit of warm weather never hurt anyone, let’s look at the reality. Think of the planet as your body and let’s see what happens to you when you experience an average increase of 6°C and what will happen to the planet as its temperature rises too. This isn’t to say that your body temperature will rise each time that Earth’s does, but it may help you relate to the trauma Gaia will experience.
Temperatures Rising
You: 37°C (98.6F) - Normal body temperature (which varies between about 36.1-37.5°C (96.8-99.5F) over a daily cycle.
Earth: The 2007 global average was 14.73 °C (58.5F), the second warmest year on record. Northern hemisphere average was 15.04 °C (59.1F) – the hottest temperature since record keeping began in 1880. This is 1°C hotter than the 1951–80 average. Global average temperature rose from 14.02°C in the 1970s to 14.26 °C in the 1980s and 14.40°C in the 1990s, according to NASA Goddard data. Over the last 8 years the global temperature has been 14.64°C. Right now over 1 billion people lack adequate water supplies, there are famines and droughts, while animal and plant species are under threat of extinction or extreme stress, and severe, unpredictable storms are occurring with increasing frequency. So the Earth isn’t particularly healthy right now, and is in no shape to deal with further heat stress.
You: +1°C: 38°C (100.4°F) - Sweating, feeling very uncomfortable, slightly hungry.
Earth: +1°C: 14.7°C, taking 13.7°C as the 1951-1980 global average temperature. The extra degree just makes life a bit more uncomfortable, more ice melting, increased fury in storms, noticeable changes in seasonal weather patterns that affect wildlife and crops, more droughts.
You: +2°C: 39°C (102.2°F). Severe sweating, feeling flushed and very hot. You may be experiencing a fast heart rate, breathlessness and exhaustion. Children and people with epilepsy may be very likely to get convulsions at this point.
Earth: +2°C: 15.7°C. More of the same, but becoming increasingly deadly – loss of summer arctic sea ice, crop failures, rising ocean temperatures, increasing desertification, large scale forest fires, further loss of species, and spreading of insect borne diseases. The Earth is also experiencing ‘convulsions’ and ‘exhaustion’ trying to absorb all that excess carbon and heat energy.
You: +3°C: 40°C (104°F) - Fainting, dehydration, weakness, vomiting, headache and dizziness may occur as well as profuse sweating. At this temperature, life is threatened.
Earth: +3°C: 16.7°C. Loss of soil moisture leads to large-scale crop failures, more people without access to adequate water supplies. An increase in planetary wide animal extinctions. The Earth is dehydrating, as deserts expand and sweats more too, as cloud cover increases and mega-storms develop in parts of the world.
You: +4°C: 41°C (105.8°F) – You are in a state of medical emergency with severe dizziness, confusion, hallucinations, delirium and drowsiness.
Earth: +4°C: 16.7°C. 10m (33ft) sea level rise. Major cereal crop yields expected to drop worldwide. Indian Himalayas and western China fresh water greatly reduced as glaciers disappear. The Amazon rain forest disappears, global temperature runaway as permafrost melts releasing methane. Now there are an estimated three billion people without adequate water supplies and upwards of 600 million people affected by sea level rises. Many more animal species are disappearing or in severe distress. Over 70% of the emitted carbon dioxide will stay in the atmosphere as carbon sinks collapse.
You: +5°C: 42°C (107.6°F). Your body is shutting down. Symptoms include severe delirium, vomiting, and convulsions. You may become comatose.
Earth: +5°C: 17.7°C. Dramatically different weather patterns and growing seasons – the equator would likely be a dead zone on much of the land – what’s left above water that is, and increasing desertification would push the last of the humans and animals to the poles or off the planet – if there is anywhere else to go by then since society, law and order would likely have broken down.
You: +6°C: 43°C (109.4°F) – Possible death or serious brain damage, continuous convulsions and shock. Cardio-respiratory collapse will most likely occur.
Earth: +6°C: 18.7°C. Just like the human body, most of Earth’s life systems as we now know them today, would either be destroyed or near collapse. Nobody can accurately predicate what will happen to the planet at this point. There is unlikely to be many people left to record what happens anyway. The carbon cycle would be out of control, fed by ‘natural’ cycles and unlikely to reduce in levels for tens of thousands of years but at least the biggest polluters – humans – will no longer be in the picture.
The future looks very grim indeed with a rapidly warming planet. Each degree that the planet warms will bring about more catastrophes and temperatures not experienced for over a 100 million years, when dinosaurs wandered through rainforests near the Poles, crocodiles swam at the North Pole, and Europe was a desert.
There will be mass extinction of many species, including our own, with the human population reduced to survivors clinging to life. The tropics will be too hot to grow crops; the sub-tropics too dry for agriculture and billions of people will go thirsty and hungry. As the oceans rise, rich agricultural low-lying land would disappear. High latitude and near polar regions would become the last standing ground for the human race and whatever animals could adapt.
It’s going to get hot, crowded, and desperate, with everyone on the planet wishing they had spoken up, and taken action, when they had the chance. The chance is now, not in 2°C time.
Resources
Human Body Temperatures
Hadley Centre World Map
Nature Geoscience
Global Carbon Project
NASA Goddard
Mark Lynas
Trevor Williams is a University of Victoria Mechanical Engineering PhD candidate specializing in renewable energy, power grid modeling and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. He has a bachelors in Aeronautical Engineering, a Masters in Management Science and over 23 years international experience in the space industry, having worked on Earth observation and telecommunications satellites. He is the author of the Eco-Geek blog.
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